Churchill Downs Selections

Best bet on card: Conquest Titan...He will win big

Race 1: Stage Street
             Dynamical
             Cold Facts


Race 2: Life At Sea
             Nesterenko Ridge
             Athens


Race 3: Film Shot
             Marine Patrol
             Jomelo


Race 4: Carve
             Guilt Trip
             Pick Of The Litter


Race 5: Cov
             Coastal Moon
             Blarp


Race 6: Conquest Titan (Best Bet)
             Tapiture
             Almost Famous


Race 7: Flashy American
            Ondine
            On Fire Baby


Race 8: Long River
             Will Take Charge
             Mylute


Race 9: Tepin
              Aurelia's Belle
              Handmade


Race 10: Smoke House


Race 11: Sherika
               Justice Judy
               Tarpy's Dream

Belmont Park Selections

 Race 1: Roaring Conquest
              Brother Ralphie
               Go To The Net


Race 2: Hannibal Lecter
             Lofty Heart
             Take Down Two


Race 3: Darnley Boy
             Rosie My Way
             We'll Talk


Race 4: Fashion Alert
             Liatris
             Lindy


Race 5: Beyond Empire
             Saturday Appeal
             Mark Twain


Race 6: Dawly
             Swift Warrior
             Infinite Magic


Race 7: Pretension
             Sports Writer
             Tug Of War


Race 8: Uncle Southern
              Atlantic Smile
              Desert Bliss


Race 9: Front
             Spa City Fever
             Readthebyline


Race10: Spa City Treasure
             Alabaster City
             Canarsie Kid

Belmont Park Card Selections

Challenging card at Belmont...looking for prices and hoping for some not to show up with their A game.

Race 1: Forever Thing
             Jimmy Connors
             Spartiatis

Race 2: Life In Shambles
             Misconnect
              Legend

Race 3: Ground Transport
             Cat Burgular
             Golden Soul

Race 4: Salto
             Upgrade
              Global Power

Race 5: Financial Mogul
             Kobe's Back
             Social Inclusion

Race 6: Unbridled Forever
              Euphrosyne
              My Miss Sophia

Race 7: Close Hatches
             Beholder
             Classic Point

Race 8: Somali Lemonade
             Stephanie Kitten
             Better Lucky

Race 9: Goldencents
             Vyjack
              Clearly Now

Race 10: Real Solution
               Imagining
               Boisterous

Race 11: Commanding Curve
               General A-Rod
               Ride On Curlin

Race 12: Mr. Jenney
               Red Vine
                Ghurair

Race 13: Protocol
               Confrontation
               EastWood

Big Sandy Will Have A Curve In Its Bend

He is the Rodney Dangerfield of the triple crown season. He wasn't the best horse on the last day of Churchill Downs when the two year olds were showcased. That honor belonged to Conquest Titan and Tapiture. He finished a fast closing second to the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and did it by going wide in the stretch, but was dismissed over the past few weeks. After the race all the talking heads shunned his strong effort by saying his fast closing effort was deceiving because he wasn't going to catch California Chrome. While this may be true, he was still the fastest closing horse in the derby, and he wasn't only passing tired horses. The talking voices went on to say his trip was ideal and that he had no problems compared to some of the other horses in the field. I scratched my head, confused by the analysis of the Kentucky Derby. The point of the derby in a nineteen horse field is to stay out of trouble and give your horse the best possible opportunity to win. Shaun Bridgmohan, the jockey on Commanding Curve delivered that exact script for his horse. He guided him around Churchill Downs, then swung clear and gave his charge the best chance to produce.

California Chrome had an ideal trip in the Kentucky Derby. He had the race his own way and Victor Espinoza wrote a masterful screenplay with his ride. He then came back in the Preakness and calculated all the right moves, outthinking most of jockeys in the race. The race was once again smooth for California Chrome because his jockey made great decisions throughout. He kept him out of trouble and produced him down the stretch, winning the second leg of the triple crown. The talking heads didn't downplay his winning effort in the first two legs of the triple crown by saying he had everything perfect. Instead, they gave him the rightful distinction as the best horse in the field. Commanding Curve was the second best horse in the derby, but is treated as a horse who did not perform on derby day. He will be given an opportunity to disturb the peace in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

After the Kentucky Derby, trainer Dallas Stewart made a wise choice by keeping Commanding Curve out of the second leg of the triple crown season. The Preakness was not set up for his horse running style, and the decision to train him up to the Belmont is the right prescription for a moment ill with triple crown syndrome. Since the derby, Commanding Curve has been working brilliantly. He has worked a couple of times in company and displayed a type of growth that you want to see from a horse whose seasoning is much younger compared to some of the other horses. His work over the Belmont surface showed he is ready to compete and do it on a very high level. I chose Commanding Curve in the Kentucky Derby because I loved his work in the Louisiana Derby and felt he would be better the longer he went. The derby and all its much publicized speed didn't materialized, but the horse came running regardless. The talking heads are quickly to point out how he finished the fastest, but also from the other side of their mouths claim Wicked Strong and Danza would have been second if they didn't have trouble. Once again, Commanding Curve was dismissed!

Since the derby, Commanding Curve has been compared to Golden Soul, another horse trained by Dallas Stewart that ran huge in the derby, but is yet to duplicate that effort. Commanding Curve is no Golden Soul who is a lovely horse in his own right. Golden Soul's love of a muddy surface propelled him into second place in the derby. The best horse in that Kentucky Derby ran off with his jockey, but came back in the Belmont Stakes to display a masterful effort.

California Chrome will be extremely difficult to beat in the Belmont Stakes. His wins thus far has been brilliant on all levels, and jockey Victor Espinoza has dialed all the correct numbers in six straight wins. From a betting standpoint you can buy a souvenir ticket and have it framed if he was to win the triple crown. However, true handicappers won't be looking for a souvenir but for a scalp. The morning line on Commanding Curve is 15/1, another Rodney Dangerfield dismissal by the line maker at Belmont Park.

Wicked Strong was made the second choice at 6/1 because it's his home track, and Tonalist who is the new Casanova in town is the third choice at 8/1 after his lovely win in the Peter Pan. Wicked Strong had a troubled story line in the derby, but I wasn't a huge fan going into the race. Although I rooted for Social Inclusion in the Wood Memorial, I didn't care for the other horses. Social Inclusion showed he needed more seasoning, and Wicked Strong closed to win the race. I threw out those horses in the derby when I was making my selection. Tonalist was impressive in the Peter Pan demolishing Commissioner who was unable to beat Chitu and Midnight Hawk at Sunland. Irish You Well ran third in the Peter Pan. He would be 20/1 or higher in the Belmont Stakes. Tonalist is a nice looking son of Tapit, but I am staying away.

The other entries in the Belmont are good horses that will find the winner's circle in other races. I loved Ride On Curlin going into the Preakness and he was validated with a very good run. I don't like him however at a mile and half on Saturday. Samratt who is trained by one of my favorites, Rick Violette, will he heard from in the future but not on Saturday. Medal Count will be a player this summer but not on Saturday. The other horses are window dressing hoping to get stake place in an American Classic.

Dallas Stewart has been quietly confident the weeks leading up to the Belmont and this week it  crawled through his skin as he spoke to the media. He knows Commanding Curve is sitting on something special. Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan is riding with loads of confidence. Last Friday he won a few, then on Saturday he went to California and won a grade one aboard Room Service. He then returned to Churchill on Sunday and rode a couple more winners. He is heating up just how I like to see a jockey going into a big race. Art Sherman and the California Chrome team are very high on their horse as well, and rightly so. Comparisons are already been made to Big Red, Secretariat, whose win in the Belmont Stakes are what movies are made about. Jockey Victor Espinoza is in a zone right now, making moves like a master chess player.

Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner. The drought has been too long, but will California Chrome be the one to end that long history? My heart knows it would be a lovely script to enjoy someday, but my voucher will have a curve to this story.

The command will be to wait until next year for the first triple crown winner since Affirmed.

Belmont Park: History..Ghost And Fame

I have been to Belmont Park on numerous occasions, paid my dollars to enter, got a racing program, listened to Tom Durkin announce the scratches, then I would quickly begin my handicapping. Along the way I took bathroom breaks or swallowed down something quickly to eat, only to quickly go back to my racing program with hopes of hitting a score. On this visit to the park something was different. There has been several attempts to win the triple crown and I have witnessed more than a few failed tries. Could it be I was feeling that California Chrome was going to do what so many others have failed to accomplish? I strolled around the track and embraced the history that looms throughout. The big picture of Secretariat with his magnificent performance  in the Belmont Stakes has always been there, but I never really paid much attention while putting my voucher in the machine and selecting my picks. The hanging picture of all the great jockeys that rode at the track has always been there as well. I wondered how many people really notice anything at the track. History sits at the doorstep and I wanted to enjoy the quiet that comforts a race track on a Thursday afternoon.

I stood in the back and watched the horses parade around hoping to catch anything that would give me an edge. The jockeys walked out the jockey room and found their trainers, quickly getting into small conversations before getting a leg up for the race. The small assembly shouts out words of encouragement while the horses passed them unto the track. The statue of Secretariat watches all quietly. An EMT worker stood by the statue of Secretariat as his colleague snapped his picture. Maybe he was feeling something special is about to happen on Saturday as well.

Will California Chrome put on a performance in the Belmont Stakes like what we saw Secretariat accomplished in 1973? There is a strong possibility that we may witness something very special on June 7th. There has been eleven triple crown winners over the years. The first winner of the triple crown, Sir Barton completed the feat in 1919. The next winner of the triple crown did not happen until eleven years later when Gallant Fox performed his magic in 1930. It was another five years until the next winner, and then in the forties we were blessed with four winners, starting with Whirlaway in 1941 and ending with Citation in 1948. There wouldn't be another triple crown winner for twenty five years, when Secretariat demolished the competition in 1973. His win was followed by Seattle Slew and Affirmed who completed the hat trick in 1978. It has been thirty six years of waiting for the next great horse to achieve this monumental task.  In 1981 I had my heart broken as a kid when Pleasant Colony didn't do the job. I followed this horse as a little boy hoping to see this magic take place that so many adults were talking about. He came home third that day, and I have never rooted for another triple crown winner until Real Quiet came onto the scene. He was cut from the same mold as California Chrome, the type of horse you believed the average man could have owned. I yelled when he turned for home that day, and when he hit the wire, I hoped and hoped until Victory Gallop's number flashed on the board. I felt robbed of the moment. That wasn't how the script was supposed to  play out. This was the every day man's horse that was to make us all feel a part of the occasion. I gathered my belongings, and with my friends, we all strolled back to the vehicle disappointed and sad. I never again bet on a horse attempting the triple crown.

California Chrome has all the tools in his shed to make this special moment happen. He comes into the race as the best three year old in the country. However, there is something about Belmont Park that humbles great horses. The track swallows greatness and then laughs at the patrons leaving. The three year olds will attempt to navigate a mile and half for the first time, and for most, this will be the only time. This requires something special from the animal. He must be a runner that can take a deep breath throughout the race, refilling his lungs for the drive home. He must be a horse that can with stand the fury of horses that will be able to get the distance of a mile and half. He must be a horse that can settle and glide around the track unaware of how big the moment is. The jockey must not be able to hear his own heart beat during the race. He must be a jockey that is cool under pressure when the real running starts.

California Chrome's journey on Saturday is not the just the race track. He must fight all the ghosts and history that walks with a big stick at beautiful Belmont Park. He will have to fight the loudness of New Yorkers on a late Saturday afternoon after a few beverages have been consumed. The New York experience will be different from any other he has had on this journey. He must overcome all the obstacles that will be thrown at him during this race.

There is a reason only eleven horses have completed this magical moment. It requires a special type of animal to win all three legs of the triple crown. California Chrome should be a fresh, rested horse coming into the race. He has had three weeks off and should have recovered lovely from the  Preakness, but so many others are chomping at the bit to come after him. They have had five weeks between races and are jumping out of their skin.

Will the triple crown ghosts give him a pass on Saturday and let him do what so many others have failed to do? If he is worthy for the club then admission may be granted, otherwise many will be ripping up tickets, packing their belongings and walking quietly to the LIRR or their waiting vehicles.

A Triple Crown Winner Would Be Nice...But..

There are those who say we need a triple crown winner to help the sport of horse racing. Horse racing hasn't seen a triple crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed ran his heart out to win the final leg of the triple crown series. Over the years we have had close calls, but the sport has carried on regardless of a triple crown winner. Would having a horse win the triple crown be a major event for horse racing? Absolutely it would be, but there are more pressing issues that need racing attention that not even a potential triple crown winner like California Chrome can solve.

HBO Real Sports brought the unfortunate side of horse racing to a national audience in its documentary series. The program picked up where the Peta controversy left off, adding fire to the fuel. They showed horses going down on the track and highlighted trainers Steve Asmussen and Bob Baffert. Steve Asmussen whose stable was infiltrated by Peta was asked once again to answer questions about his barns throughout the country, and the comments made by his former assistant Scott Blasi. Asmussen tried his best to answer the questions regarding the drugs Thyroxin and Clenbuterol, which was given to Finesse, a horse trained by him. The horse died on the track, and the Real Sport series showed him falling pass the wire. In addition to Finesse, the program also showed other horses going down on various tracks and being euthanized as a result of life threatening injuries.

Bob Baffert was mentioned in the program because several of his horses died after the drug Thyroxin was administered to them. As a result of his horses dying, Baffert, according to the program no longer administers this drug to his horses. The program also showed a former exercise jockey who went down after a horse he was working broke down on the track. The horse didn't survive the incident and the exercise jockey who will never walk again requires around the clock assistance from family and friends. That exercise rider's life didn't have to be ruined if proper measures were taken with the horse. Years later the revelation that the horse was hurt prior to going out to work makes the incident sickening and sad. Two lives forever changed.

The drugs Thyroxin and Clenbuterol are two drugs that are banned in Europe. Why is it that the European racing industry can have a handle on horse racing and in this country we are so backwards? On the HBO program, Dr. Mary Scollay said, "When the purse is worth more than the horse, the horse becomes a commodity." What an indictment on the state of affairs in the sport of horse racing! There are trainers who are willing to sacrifice the animal for a hefty purse and are also willing to put the life of jockeys at risk for money. I have been watching this sports since I was a child, and unfortunately I have seen countless horses go down and put to sleep on the track. I have seen many jockeys fall only to have their lives destroyed as a result of a fallen horse. Not all incidents on the track are due to horses breaking down, but several of the cases I have witnessed are a direct result of this type of accident. Were all these horses injured prior to going to the track? Were their injuries masked by powerful pain killers? I would say definitely not, but the doubts can't help but sit at the doorstep of one's mind.

There are many outstanding trainers in the game of horse racing. I have seen trainers and owners claim a horse just so they can give him/her a proper home. They didn't want the horse to compete anymore. Unfortunately those type of practices weren't exposed in the Real Sports series.

A triple crown winner would be tremendous for the sport of horse racing come June 7th but it would not help the sport in the immediate future. The sport needs an overseer who can help bring it under one umbrella. I have said in the past and will state once again, the sport needs a commissioner, no different from the NFL or NBA. We need to bridge the divide between all these varying jurisdictions. If the New York Racing Association can quickly get rid of a stupid nasal strip rule to accommodate California Chrome and his owners and trainer, then why are we so slow to change other things in the sport that are very pressing. These drugs that are given to horses need close inspection. If horses are dying and evidence leads to one culprit, then the time is ripe to get rid of that culprit. Veterinarians who are administering drugs to mask injuries need to have their license revoked. Dr. Kate Papp, a veterinarian at Penn National, was also featured on the Real Sports program. She stated, “One injection takes two seconds and makes you $30. And if you multiply that times ten in one day, that's $300 for five minutes worth of work.” This is a sad commentary on her profession and colleagues. How can people and their decision making be so callous when animals and people's lives are at stake is beyond my comprehension.

Right now horse racing is safe from major public scrutiny because major networks haven't made their ignorance a priority. They are given some negative spotlight but nothing that has provoked the average Joe to pay attention. That can all change in a flash and once that barrel starts to roll down stream then we all better get out of the way. Some tracks are ghost towns during the week, resembling abandoned cities after the gold rush dried up. Horse racing could permanently become a ghost town if sweeping changes are not made. Greed is not good, and will eventually kill those in its path.

California Chrome may bring home the jewel come June 7th, but I hope along with his possible victory, those who are in places of power will love their pay checks and notoriety enough to bring help to the sport, making it a safe for both horses and jockeys. Like California Chrome we can all hope.

Two Dollars Versus California Chrome

There is nothing more exciting than standing in the midst of madness on Belmont Stakes Day with the possibility of a triple crown winner coming home to the joyous crowd. I have stood and watched on a few occasions hoping to see history made. I saw Chris Antley jumping off Charismatic and holding his leg while Lemon Drop Kid and Jose Santos celebrated with his brother-in-law Herberto Castillo Jr. who rode Vision and Verse to second place. Both Jose Santos and his brother-in-law weren't thinking about history when they ran down Charismatic in the stretch. They were thinking of winning an American Classic and collecting that hefty pay day. Jose Santos would feel the sting of defeat four years later when Empire Maker and Jerry Bailey ripped the triple crown from New Yorkers and played a funny joke on them. I watched that mud fest and was thoroughly entertained. Of all the Belmont Stakes I have watched over the years, Real Quiet and his defeat was the most enjoyable and continues to rank as one of the best races I have witnessed in person. Turning for home my friends and I shouted at the top of our lungs as the horse gasped down the stretch. Kent Desormeaux, the jockey on Real Quiet did everything he could to get the horse to the wire. He shook the reins vigorously, and later when I watched the replay on television you could hear him shouting at the horse to keep him going. Victory Gallop came under Gary Stevens and gave the full house at Belmont Park the saddest ending to any story. It was a great race and one I have watched repeatedly. I saw Smarty Jones mugged in the stretch by Birdstone in 2004. I played Birdstone that day and while the wet New Yorkers were saddened by the defeat, I got in my car with my cashed ticked and got out of Long Island a happy New Yorker.  War Emblem was another triple crown chance that I had the privilege to see in person. The horse didn't show up that day. He lost all chances when the gate flew open and he stumbled, and a charge trained by Ken Mcpeek named Sarava stole the show.

The Belmont Stakes can be a good return on your hard earned two dollars. When War Emblem failed to win the Belmont Stakes, my best buddy shouted with happiness because he had his two dollars across the board on Sarava. How did he come up with Sarava is still a mystery! I believe he plucked it out of the air though he claims good handicapping. We will forever disagree, and what was important was that he cashed and we celebrated. Playing the favorite in the Belmont Stakes is suicide, and that is why no matter who lines up against California Chrome this year, I will be looking for a 
profit on my dollars.

There are those who think it is wrong to root against California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes. They believe that if you are against the horse then you are not for the sport or you don't love the sport as much as they do. California Chrome has proven to me that he is a beast of a horse. He has in his arsenal the weapons necessary to win the triple crown. He has natural speed which allows him to stay out of trouble and get in the game early. He is a versatile horse who can stalk the lead or take them all the way if he desires. The Chrome has that burst of acceleration which enables him to separate from others when the real running begins. These qualities may prove too much for his competitors come June 7th, but the race is not run on paper but on dirt. Ask Big Brown if he agrees!

If the triple crown was a forgone conclusion and everyone wants a triple crown winner, then the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes would only have one horse. That isn't the case this year or in the past. Trainers and owners want that prestige, and if it comes at the expense of a possible triple crown winner then so be it.

 I thought I had the right horse in the Preakness, but Ride On Curlin couldn't get to him before the wire. Come June 7th my two dollars will comb through all the angles possible for a horse player. I will look at training over the Belmont strip, and observe which jockeys and trainers are heating up during the week of June 7th. I will pay close attention to the words leaving trainers' lips over the next coming weeks, especially those escaping from Art Sherman's mouth. Then I will check if Nick Zito decides to run something at the last minute. Zito is New York's version of Wayne Lukas. He will walk his barn area until he finds someone COMMENDABLE to run. Have anyone seen Spot lately on the track?

We all want to see a triple crown winner in our lifetime. When California Chrome hits the Belmont dirt on June 7th, and the starter lifts the latch and send them on their way, make that loud New York noise, however, invest your two dollars elsewhere. This is New York and anything can happen in a New York minute.