Rain Rain Go Away

Yesterday was a complete mess from a handicapping standpoint at Saratoga. The race card was totally decimated with scratches and I kindly watched as a viewer, throwing out everything I saw. Today I am hoping racing will return to the turf even if it's soft because a soft turf is better than what I endured yesterday. Boca Babe won by over twenty lengths while my pick Crashing Conclave with Manny Franco riding just crossed the finish line, ready to go around again because she didn't run a step the first time around. My hands went up in the air and so did my program. Hopefully today will bring sunshine that will begin the drying process for an exciting Saturday.

Things to watch for Aug 1st at Saratoga:

Race 1: No Nukes.. has been going well since dropping to more inviting company..had many chances to blow up tote board but hasn't delivered, and I don't like faves who had too many chances.

Fidelius.. is dropping for George Weaver..going back to dirt..if No Nukes is fave why not play this one.

Invasion Point.. is another dropper trying to find some love..son of Invasor should appreciate the stretch out and relief.

Jacob's Here ... yet another dropper..shortening up..state bred first time..will be on ticket.


Race 2: Point To The Wild... If the mare is correct and ready to make a point add your ten cents to your two dollar bet...she will love the green or dirt..only challenger in this soft spot should be Ave's Halo if it stays on green..sit back and enjoy this one.


Race 3: Samantha Nicole had people watching first time out but the party and hype was short lived..she had some time off and changed barns..working well and may just decide to be good like her sister.

Dragonberry...finished fourth last time out to Predicate who came back to finish second in allowance company..5/1 morning line.. I likey.


Cali Star... is rightfully the morning line fave... had many chances..play but try to beat in top spot.


Twenty In One... Three starts..three times in the money...is this another Smart Ashley in the making?


Race 4: North Slope enjoys dirt..third last time out behind sail mate who stunk up the joint yesterday but the entire card stunk up the joint with the mud..give this one a look.


Ever Rider..has kept company my mother would be proud of..will be tough.


All Tied Up...last time ran against horses that were window dressing for Bayern in Haskell.



Race 5: Herd Mentality..broke maiden a year ago at Saratoga...given a month off by Asmussen..coming back in a race that is screaming for a price.

Solly's Mischief... fits with these at 10/1 morning line..Franco will have to work out a trip.



Race 6: How..takes a drop..play at 7/5 or just watch... I hate just watching so I am playing but not this one on top.

Once A Week ... 6/1..fits nicely with these..she will be coming and maybe the right play if you don't like HOW.


Race 7: Lunar Tales...looks like the right one if race is on turf.

Let's Go Ben..will be played if taken off green..Blinkers added will put this son of Songandaprayer in the game early.


Race 9: I loved Munnings Sister the moment I saw the card... She is one of those I always enjoy watch running... going to turf after extended campaign on dirt..if this taken off I love her even more.




Selections:


Race 1: Jacob's Here
             Fidelius
             Invasion Point
           



Race 2: Point To The Wild
             Ave's Halo
             My Bella Beauty      




Race 3: Dragonberry
             Cali Star
             Samantha Nicole



Race 4: Ever Rider
             North Slope
             All Tied Up




Race 5: Solly's Mischief
             Herd Mentality
             Stowe





Race 6: Once A Week
             How
             Daddy Loves Gold




Race 7: Lunar Tales
             Let's Go Ben
             Stalagmite




Race 8:  Smokey Brown
              Aripeka
              Jigsaw




Race 9: Munnings Sister
              Free As A Bird
             Believe In Charlie




Race 10: Romans Paradise
               Dividend
               All My Trails          

Make Some Money

The Thursday card at Saratoga offers some nice opportunities in each race.

Race 2: Rare Eagle had five starts this year and put himself in the money four times.. lone disappointment was on turf this year..back to dirt..Maragh and Albertrani always play good music.

Harbor King: has had many chances and all in state bred company..last December finished third behind Uncle Sigh..I am sighing while dismissing this one.


None Like Nolan: is the morning line favorite based on recency..done nice work on dirt and turf.


Aggrandizement: has never been in the money but has kept beautiful company..the relief maybe the prescription..I am banking that he wakes up in this spot.



Race 3: Hot Squeeze...scratched from Coronation Cup and that was a wise decision considering the Graham Motion horse was nice...eight days turnaround..Weaver knows he has a Saratoga diva...go to the window..could be first repeat winner.


White Sangria.. is going well this year..hit trifecta in three starts..one to beat.


Neck Of The Moon...Second start off layoff..Chad Brown knows how to get them fit and Castellano is ahead of the class.



Race 4: North Ocean...woke up last time...that maybe the antidote..he will be tough with Pletcher legging up his main dude.


Big Town...jockey improvement..just love the company line.


One King's Man...four back finished behind Big Town..could get a piece.



Race 5: I am going to play Motion and Ortiz..Reign is an apt name for the way Motion is going right now at Saratoga..Hail the turf king.

Crashing Conclave....coming out of race won by Lonely Teardrops who I loved yesterday..Lonely Teardrops finished third in nice effort at a price.


Stay In Front...Changed barns..coming off layoff.. dropping immediately.


Price Play: Madris in Race 7...my price play on the day... Media Kid and Grand Rapport has played tag in last two races..they will be tough in this level but you have to take shot at some point and Madris at 15/1 morning line fits with these.


Race 9: Evan Shipman Stakes... Big Business..Jacobson is finishing in the money..morning line fave..nice horse.


Awesome Vision..will be the play for me..just look who he danced with and even beat back in November..Zivo.. My Best Bet On The Day.



Selections:

Race 2: Rare Eagle
             None Like Nolan
             Aggrandizement



Race 3: Hot Squeeze
             White Sangria
             Neck Of The Moon


Race 4: North Ocean
             Big Town  
             One King's Man


Race 5:  Reign
              Crashing Conclave
              Stay In Front


Race 6:  Bullheaded Boy
              Scorecard Harry
              Watergate


Race 7:  Madris
              Media Kid
              Grand Rapport


Race 8: Los Borrachos
             Mister Special
             Strom


Race 9: Awesome Vision (best bet)
             Big Business
             Sailmate


Race 10: Rack Em Earl
               Anmatt
               Grandpa Len

Things Are Still The Same At Saratoga

The more things change the more they stay the same. After the early start to the Saratoga meet, jockey John Velasquez and Javier Castellano are once again fighting for leading jockey with one win separating the two top jockeys. Both jockeys are hitting in the money at a staggering 50% for riders with over fifty mounts, which is mind blowing considering the competition at the meet. Bet Velasquez and Castellano if you like padding your two dollar bet, but venture outside the norm if you want some value.

For the trainers, Todd Pletcher is once again ahead of the class with his stock stable. Mott, Maker, Dutrow, and Weaver are also hitting hard with winners. Chad Brown and Christophe Clemente are in the money from 24 and 22 runners respectively. With seventeen starters, Bruce Brown has been in the money ten times with seven of those finishing third. How many of those third place finishers will convert to winners in the next few weeks from the Bruce Brown barn? That is something to pay close attention to. 

Barns that can get even hotter in the next few weeks:  Kiaran McLaughlin with only two in the money finishers from nine staters. The barn is quiet on the track and off. David Jacobson has one winner from twenty starters, although he has seven second and third place finishers and "Shug" McGaughey with twelve starters with two winners and two third place finishers.

Things to watch for Wednesday, July 30th at Saratoga: 

The Coronation Cup is the ninth race on the card and it draws ten starters. I am not blown away with these fillies, but there will be a price play in the field.  

We have Hot Squeeze coming off a nice win on July 23rd... seven days turn around..loved her in her last start but I am passing this time around.

Ruslana: I looked..I saw..I don't like.

Sweetmary's Success: Trying turf for the first time..she will love it..third off layoff..love that!

Scatcapade: Five starts this year..in the money three times..leave out Clement at your own peril.

Recoupe: Broke maiden on turf after three starts on dirt..could be rising.

Stars Above Me: is an interesting filly..first time lasix...in the money four out of five starts..the field is not incredibly strong..motion is going well..take a shot!

Fat Kat: Two starts..two stakes..someone thinks highly of this filly.

Isabelle: From the Lisa Lewis barn...will be trying turf for the first time..if she likes it then payoff could be great.

Elena Strikes: Comes into field boasting impressive company on dirt...Pletcher and Velasquez are hot again at Saratoga.

Selection: I am playing Stars Above Me on top...I am banking that she will be nice against this bunch..will play three others underneath for super.

Race 2: Brandini is stretching out for the first time..sticking to maiden claiming ranks after trying straight maiden six previous starts...could graduate today.

Race 3: Willet will be tough but I am trying to beat that one with Here's Zealicious...the six year old mare is hard hitting on the track...seven starts this year and in the money six times with four wins.

Price Play: Race 4...Alaskan Bird form the Nick Zito barn...won last time out after going back to dirt...will enjoy stretching out and she could just love that winning feeling.

Race 5..Dilger and Bridgmohan did some nice work with the two year old Wired Bryant last year..this season Bridgmohan came off Saluda when the gate opened...they will be tough in this spot with the daughter of Smart Strike.

Selections:

Race 1: Harrods Creek

             El Season

             Virsito/Easy Reach

Race 2: Brandini

             Kelly's Prize

             Bella Fachi

Race 3: Here's Zealicious

             Willet

             Atlantic Smile

Race 4: Alaskan Bird

             Rock Me Mama

             chase My Tail

Race 5: First Charmer

             Oohlala

             Nonna Jo

Race 6: Mama Zee

             Rosie My Way

             Kelwynne

Race 7: Lonely Teardrops

             Wine Burglar

             Ear D' Rhythm

Race 8: Queen To Be

              La Madrina

              Hobe Wins

Race 9: Stars Above Me

             Scatcapade

             Isabelle

             Fat Kat

   

Race 10: Uptown Joe

                Candir

                Jimmy Souls

                Kato

              

They Are Giving Away Saratoga Money

Things to watch for on Monday July 28th at Saratoga:

Race 1 is an interesting mix of horses coming out of maiden races and a few coming out of maiden claiming ranks.

Point of Hope....last time out finished behind Special Agent and Sheldon. Special agent came back to win allowance race while Sheldon broke maiden..barn had win yesterday...looks strong.

Are We Not Men..has raced three times..kept good company and this spot seems softer than previous campaign.

Pilatus...has been running well in maiden claiming company..if others don't show up he could get a piece.

I am looking forward to seeing race 2 and I hope the rain gods stay away so this one remains on the green.

Banana Thief...is a son of kitten joy out of a Johar mare...Asmussen and Bridgmohan has teamed up to do some lovely things in the past..going well.

Amazing Anne..is a filly tackling the boys..the daughter of Freud has had a series of work..will love the lawn.

Essence At Noon...is a son of Noonmark who will be making his second start..first start was in a stake race where he finished fifth.. he will improve from that first effort.

Race 3.. I am playing Southern Blessing at a price...one start this year after a taking a break..last start ran into some nice three year olds..Asmussen is great in these of type of races.

Race 4..is a bettors delight.. maiden claimers looking to graduate..I am taking a shot with a firster from the Maker barn. I am not so blown away with the others so why not take shot with a newcomer... War Of Honor is a son of War Pass who was a very fast horse..Irad climbs aboard and I will be hoping.

Race 8 is the Honorable Miss Stake...My Wandy's Girl is my best bet of the day..love this mare who has kept beautiful company in her six starts..out of money once..Mike Hushion is going very well at Saratoga...shortening up though one effort at six furlongs was off the board..dismiss that..last time out chased 45 and change for the half and got caught in stretch.. great foundation from that race..if I get 7/2 it would be a gift.

Race 9..Romancing The Gold is coming off a win but showed nothing in previous..will get money because of the barn...I am staying away from the top spot with this one.

Selections:

Race 1: Point of Hope 

            Are We Not Men

            Pilatus

Race 2: Banana Thief

             Amazing Anne

             Essence At Noon

Race 3: Southern Blessing

             Mr. O' Leary

             Beau Who

Race 4: War Of Honor 

             Spa City Treasure

             Frame

Race 5: Citizen Wells

             Maserati

             Best Play

Race 6: Forest Boy

             Pecorino

             Appealing Alex

Race 7: Father Johns Pride

             Big Sugar Soda

             Defiant (if he draws in)

Race 8: My Wandy's Girl

             R Free Roll

             La Verdad

Race 9: Zoebear

             Mr. Espresso

             Star Of New York

             Romancing The Gold

Jim Dandy Is The Start Of Second Season

The Jim Dandy at Saratoga draws a collective group of talented three year olds. One doesn't have to look deep to see the talent that litters the group. Tonalist began painting a master piece in the Peter Pan and completed the painting in the Belmont Stakes when he dashed hopes and dreams on a beautiful New York Saturday. Tonalist will once again be ridden by Joel "all world" Rosario, and this three year old will be trying to send another message to California Chrome and others that the win in the Belmont Stakes was a prelude of what is to come.

Tonalist won't be without his challengers and Linda Rice comes to the party dressed up with Kid Cruz. The horse with the name that reminds me of a calypso singer has been on a roll since his disappointment in the Preakness. The switch was made to Irad Ortiz and he has come alive with the young jockey. Kid Cruz will be singing and dancing down the lane but he won't find a sprinter trying to stretch out, and there won't be any Life In Shambles who was a shamble yesterday in the Curlin.


Legend has been out of the money once in five starts but if I am not high on Kid Cruz, why would I be high on this three year old? He won't be a legend after this race.


Ulanbator comes to the party as the buzz horse. Third in the Dwyer...behind whom?..you guessed it -Kid Cruz... if I am not dancing with Kid Cruz I am sure not dancing with this Ian Wilkes charge.


Commanding Curve My Derby pick..ran well...my Belmont Stakes horse..stunk up joint like a New York subway after the clubs let out.....should be there at the end.


Wicked Strong could be wickedly strong in this race..he could and should be there with Tonalist.. Maragh is riding very well.

Selection:
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve


The appetizer for the Jim Dandy is the Amsterdam....

Coup De Grace...comes off winning effort..confidence builder...has kept great company..can he get a breather?....if so could be there.


Rock Fall...Pletcher/Castellano..won on turf and dirt..the horse he beat last time out Real Estate Rich gave a dull effort in his last start...Saratoga will play him because it's Pletcher.


Captain Serious..love this crazy serious race horse..saw him compete in the Mike Lee and when Jose Ortiz was leaving the paddock he was smiling like a kid at Christmas..he laughed all the way to the wire...last out in Dwyer he did all the work and got out finished not by a better horse but by the distance...he is a stud..will fire once more.



TizNowForAmerica...wouldn't you want to hear Durkin call this one first at the wire... could be a little over his head.


Noble Moon...is cutting back in distance since maiden breaker...Gyarmati is sneaky good..underrated trainer...won't surprise me.


Big Guy Ian...is cutting back..last out finished behind Protonico...don't know if he is fast enough..could get a piece...


Selection:
Captain Serious
Noble Moon
Coup De Grace



Race 7..is an enticing betting race...

Fabulous Kid...last time on dirt in Peter Pan sat close to pace..faded..came back on turf and showed nothing...shortening up.

Celebrated Talent... last win came over Saratoga's dirt..missing in action for sometime...barn is ice cold thus far but can wakeup in a New York minute.

Rich "N" Tuck..put on dirt for last two and woke up in both efforts..Zito is off to a good start..Saez at a price


Jimmy Connors...cut back in distance for last start and came alive..this could be the right spot.

Selection:
Rich "N" Tuck
Fabulous Kid
Jimmy Connors



Watch Your Money:
Smart Ashley in race 1 has burned a lot of money..breaking from the outside...I am betting she will still be a maiden.


Make Some Money:
Race 5... Rankhasprivileges...fits with these... why is Golden Soul 5/1???...because he has ran in nothing but stake races until his last?..I am taking the higher price horse that finished ahead of him.



Race 6: Arc Above...has run 2nd at distance two back..kept good company..Norumbega..Star Channel.. Capitan Futuro..long layoff...if he is right then the price is right with this level...Knight's Nation..done nothing in first two starts of the year but the company is softer in this spot.


Selecctions:

Race 1: Rapid Repair
             Magnolia Lane
             Engaginglee



Race 2: Hidden Vow
             Blue Pigeon
             Sanctify



Race 3: Bayerd
             Competitive Edge
             Aldrin



Race 4: Vecino
              Tom's Vision
               Poppy's Watching



Race 5: Rankhasprivileges
              Bay Of Biscay
              Matuszak



Race 6: Arc Above
             Capitan Futuro
             Knight's Nation



Race 7: Rich "N" Tuck
             Fabulous Kid
             Jimmy Connors



Race 8: Captain Serious
             Noble Moon
             Coup De Grace


Race 9: Miss Owell
             The Lady Says Yes
             Distorted Beauty



Race 10: Tonalist
              Wicked Strong
              Commanding Curve




Race 11: Elroi
               Tapitation
               Poliziotto
               Bluegrass Flash

Curlin To Write A New Chapter

The word is that Commanding Curve will skip Curlin Stakes and head to the Jim Dandy to run on Saturday. The Jim Dandy is shaping up to be a nice race, but the Curlin runners will be looking to make a name for themselves for later on in the season. The race has some nice horses but after looking closely at the race, I immediately dismissed most of the field. Todd Pletcher sends out Protonico who has two wins from three starts. He came back from a layoff to score beautifully going a mile but the second and third place finishers behind him - All My Memories and Big Guy Ian won't set anyone's track on fire.

Life In Shambles will be ridden by Joel Rosario who is riding very well at the current Spa meet. The three year old colt train by Clement is coming off a third place finish behind Kid Cruz. I selected Life In Shambles to win the Easy Goer because I wasn't in love with Kid Cruz. Well Kid Cruz won that race and came back to win the Dwyer a month later. Life In Shambles has only been out of the money once in his career so I will include him underneath.


Joint Custody is an ultra consistent horse who always seems to fire in the MidAtlantic region. Today he is coming to Saratoga to strut his stuff and the talented jock McCarthy follows the charge. I like a consistent horse that will lay it down no matter what. He has eight starts and finished in the money seven times with three wins. The Curlin is a grab bag and I am not reaching too deep in the bag to find this gem waiting to sparkle.



Things to watch for on Friday, July 25th:

Race 2: Valerie Victoria is a live long shot..third start off layoff..stretching out a bit..morning line is very inviting.



Race 3: Shetan is live long shot play...Motion and Rosario..both are hot right now...third off layoff..love that angle..take a shot.


Race 4: is a lovely race..Jose Ortiz jumps off Horatio and goes to Noble Cornerstone..Ortiz had a win on the horse last month..things that make you go hmmm when handicapping.



Race 6: Abraham..love this horse today...has a win over track..he will have to fight off Qualify who is going for four in a row...and Bad Hombre coming back in twelve days..all three are going well.




Race 10: Long shot play Por Que Te Sueno..some nice works..will get Lasix for first effort..Bridgmohan already scored with long shot on turf...use in gimmicks.





Selections:


Race 1: Vision of Mine
              Naughty Matilda
              Silver Union




Race 2:         My Place
                   Violet Hour              
                   Valerie Victoria



Race 3: Shetan
             Clearbrook
            Royal Blessing





Race 4: Noble Cornerstone
             Horatio
             Leilani's Ticket





Race 5: Stormy Rocit
             Upward
             Animal Style





Race 6: Abraham
             Qualify
             Bad Hombre





Race 7: Mobilize
             Sumba Sunset
             Shift Colors





Race 8: Readthebyline
             Finding Candy
             Bug Juice





Race 9: Joint Custody
             Protonico
             Life In Shambles





Race 10: Forensic
               Jolene
               Por Que Te Sueno
               Giant's Jewel
               Colorful................... Super box play
             

Don't Get Harpooned Once More

Things to Watch for:

The Quick Call Stakes is race 9 on the Thursday card and we have a money burner in the field. Harpoon whose last win came December 26th at Gulfstream Park will once again take a majority of bettors' money. The promising three year old son of Tapit wet the appetite of many has a two year old, but he hasn't lived up to his potential. Put your money elsewhere, but if he decides to show up and run a winning effort then so be it...the payoff won't be that hurtful...I am taking the hook out of my mouth and passing on him until he shows more.

Pure Sensation: he is trying turf for the first time and has been keeping excellent company..Clement knows how to get a horse ready to run, and turf is where he has made his name...include this charge in your exotics.


Harpoon: made my case


Escapist: broke maiden and came back to win an allowance race after some time off...both winning effort has been on the green..DeCarlo wasn't replace by some big name jockey...which is the trend at Saratoga...good for DeCarlo.



Good Bye Greg: is the son of Teuflesberg...fast and more fast..two starts and two wins..both wins on the fake dirt.



Favorite Tale: should take to the green...shortening up for this spot...Rosie...include



Glacken Too: is an interesting play...he has kept good company such as Unknown Road..Embellishing Bob and Cabo Cat...last time on the green he raced wide the entire race..chased fast pace..made three wide move and weakened going a mile..shortening up for this effort..this race is begging for a price



Choctaw Chuck: I am a Taylor Rice fan but this one I am passing on


Selection: Glacken Too...Pure Sensation...Escapist



Race 2 is an inviting two year old race with Pletcher and Asmussen once again ready to throw down..Yesterday Asmussen got the better of Pletcher... this race Asmussen sends out Revolver and Pletcher counters with Battle Red and Bully Proof..Revolver departs a four and half furlong race where he came on to be second... Battle Red finished second behind I Spent It...Another interesting horse is Louisiana Brown who finished second to Mr. Z at Churchill Downs..Mr Z is a nice colt.



Jockey watch: Robbie Albarado... Edgar Prado... Taylor Rice... still waiting to visit the winners' circle... Rice will be aboard Penella in race 3 and the horse has a shot..dropping back to maiden claimers..back to dirt..blinkers on..give this price play a look


Race 3..Molly Jordan is coming off an extended break..dropping in claiming race...if she is ready she will fire against these.. Keep Right will be tough in this spot...Mary's in Utopia finished behind Girlaboutown who freaked yesterday.


Race 7: is a feast... I will be taking some price underneath Sneaky Kitten


Race 8: Egotist intrigues me


Race 10: wants a long shot to come home...All Over Me is very vulnerable in this spot...2/1 morning line...take a peek elsewhere




Selections:

Race 1: Gmac
             Saint Jerome
             Bluegrass Summer




Race 2: Louisiana Brown
             Battle Red
             Revolver




Race 3: Mary's In Utopia
             Keep Right
             Molly Jordan




Race 4: Ultimate Shopper
              Katie's Garden
              Lady Gracenote




Race 5: Skipping
             Orient Harbor
             Miss Lech




Race 6: Bridgetta
             Bird House
             Darn That Trip




Race 7: Sneaky Kitten
              Lord Of Love
             Status Of Forces




Race 8: Wholelotaroyalty
              Pura Vida Zen
              Egotist





Race 9: Glacken Too
             Pure Sensation
              Escapist





Race 10: Regretless
               Chasin Chama
               All Over Me