All About The Points In The Arkansas Derby

Who will win the Arkansas Derby? A close look at the field and you will find a competitive race waiting to break out. Bayern the flashy winner at Santa Anita brings his impressive running style to the race. In his last race he broke smoothly and quickly took a strangle hold. His competitors were all left wondering what happened. He glided over the Santa Anita surface like an elegant ice skater. That performance published his name on several derby watchers top ten list. Bayern will be up against it this Saturday. He needs those coveted points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Outcomes  I envision with Bayern this Saturday are: He will break like he did in his last race and display a California Chrome type behavior that will once again have tongues wax knowledge about how he will win the derby. Another scenario I see for this horse is that he breaks smoothly, but the time off and the competition will be too much, and he will be swallowed up by a tidal wave of seasoned horses. Bayern is a talented son of Offlee Wild with horses like Seattle Slew, Thunder Gulch and Alydar in the backdrop of his pedigree. Will he stay the distance? The pedigree suggest that he will relish the distance, but something about the way this horse moves and his body scope concerns me a bit.

Another horse with a big chance is Strong Mandate. I once was invited to listen to  a motivational speaker. I sat in the audience and the speaker laid out his credentials then proceeded to let his listeners know what they had to do to achieve his status. One thing he said that still stuck with me was that potential will remain potential if you never step up to the plate and make something happen. Strong Mandate is at a crossroad in his three year old journey. He flashed immense talent when he spat mud back at other horses in the Hopeful Stake at Saratoga. That day even Tom Durkin dug into his bag of hyperboles and crowned him something special. I am usually a believer when Durkin's call crowns a horse during the Saratoga meet. The son of Tiznow like Bayern needs derby qualifying points. Wayne Lukas knows what it requires to get a horse ready for the derby. He understands that his peak performance is not needed Saturday but Strong Mandate will have to drop his belly and run. He needs to stay focused. The time is now! Realize the potential and seize the moment or he could be on the outside wondering "What if...?"


Ride on Curlin brings his in the money running to the field. He is a tough, hard horse, that consistently tries, and one must love a horse that tries. Will he get to the wire first? He is good, but his class is not good enough to break these down especially, if the real Strong Mandate stands up, and Bayern shows up ready to run.

Conquest Titan exits a disappointing fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby. He came into the derby season off a strong win at Churchill Downs. His next race in the Holy Bull he chased Cairo Prince, finishing second to that charge. Calvin Borel hops aboard the son of Birdstone. He will settle him behind the pack and will come running at the end. Conquest Titan has the the talent to brind back a nice dividend  on Saturday. Thundergram also is entered from the Mark Casse stable. If he has matured mentally and  ready to fire, then he could potentially steal away a few points from those hoping to cash in.

Commissioner is the pretty boy of the field. He is that pop star that all the young girls are screaming over. His hits include his maiden win and an impressive win over Top Billing who everyone thought was the real deal. Since his allowance win, Commissioner finished off the board in the Fountain Of Youth and placed third behind  horses Chitu and Midnight Hawk who are not high on my derby list. That was a soft Sunland Park Derby field. He came running, and his trainer that boy band manager who knows how to get his boys ready for a big race, will have him ready to fire this Saturday. Commissioner may find his groove this Saturday and Mike Smith may once again flash his hired gun status by doing what I don't think will happen. If Commissioner brings the performance that took down Top Billing, then he may once again have fans lining up for his autograph.

Tapiture is the class of the Arkansas Derby Field. This is the horse with all the gifts and breeding that took an eternity to break his maiden.  He flashed his pearly whites with running a nice second to Strong Mandate at Saratoga. Then he began to become the horse that is overly bet, burning money. Then one day when the stars were aligned and the heavenly host stood on the precipice of greatness, he woke up from his slumber and did it. He won! The Kentucky Jockey Club announced what everyone had thought. The horse is very good. He came back in the Southwest to dominate with a lengthening stride that made one think of possibilities. Tapiture is blessed with a strong combination of power and stamina. He is a brute that will take you down in a horse fight. Will Asmussen have him cranked up for this race? It is a grade one with grade one status and money on the line, so he will be ready to fire. Tapiture will sit right off the pace under the gifted hands of Joel Rosario, and then the beast will be unleashed for the run. In the Rebel he got into a little trouble and couldn't fully get to running. Hoppertunity the horse that beat him that day came back to run lovely in the Santa Anita Derby. Tapiture will destroy this field on Saturday and the only conversation to be had is who will be your Kentucky Derby favorite, Tapiture or California Chrome?