He is the Rodney Dangerfield of the triple crown season. He wasn't the best horse on the last day of Churchill Downs when the two year olds were showcased. That honor belonged to Conquest Titan and Tapiture. He finished a fast closing second to the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and did it by going wide in the stretch, but was dismissed over the past few weeks. After the race all the talking heads shunned his strong effort by saying his fast closing effort was deceiving because he wasn't going to catch California Chrome. While this may be true, he was still the fastest closing horse in the derby, and he wasn't only passing tired horses. The talking voices went on to say his trip was ideal and that he had no problems compared to some of the other horses in the field. I scratched my head, confused by the analysis of the Kentucky Derby. The point of the derby in a nineteen horse field is to stay out of trouble and give your horse the best possible opportunity to win. Shaun Bridgmohan, the jockey on Commanding Curve delivered that exact script for his horse. He guided him around Churchill Downs, then swung clear and gave his charge the best chance to produce.
California Chrome had an ideal trip in the Kentucky Derby. He had the race his own way and Victor Espinoza wrote a masterful screenplay with his ride. He then came back in the Preakness and calculated all the right moves, outthinking most of jockeys in the race. The race was once again smooth for California Chrome because his jockey made great decisions throughout. He kept him out of trouble and produced him down the stretch, winning the second leg of the triple crown. The talking heads didn't downplay his winning effort in the first two legs of the triple crown by saying he had everything perfect. Instead, they gave him the rightful distinction as the best horse in the field. Commanding Curve was the second best horse in the derby, but is treated as a horse who did not perform on derby day. He will be given an opportunity to disturb the peace in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.
After the Kentucky Derby, trainer Dallas Stewart made a wise choice by keeping Commanding Curve out of the second leg of the triple crown season. The Preakness was not set up for his horse running style, and the decision to train him up to the Belmont is the right prescription for a moment ill with triple crown syndrome. Since the derby, Commanding Curve has been working brilliantly. He has worked a couple of times in company and displayed a type of growth that you want to see from a horse whose seasoning is much younger compared to some of the other horses. His work over the Belmont surface showed he is ready to compete and do it on a very high level. I chose Commanding Curve in the Kentucky Derby because I loved his work in the Louisiana Derby and felt he would be better the longer he went. The derby and all its much publicized speed didn't materialized, but the horse came running regardless. The talking heads are quickly to point out how he finished the fastest, but also from the other side of their mouths claim Wicked Strong and Danza would have been second if they didn't have trouble. Once again, Commanding Curve was dismissed!
Since the derby, Commanding Curve has been compared to Golden Soul, another horse trained by Dallas Stewart that ran huge in the derby, but is yet to duplicate that effort. Commanding Curve is no Golden Soul who is a lovely horse in his own right. Golden Soul's love of a muddy surface propelled him into second place in the derby. The best horse in that Kentucky Derby ran off with his jockey, but came back in the Belmont Stakes to display a masterful effort.
California Chrome will be extremely difficult to beat in the Belmont Stakes. His wins thus far has been brilliant on all levels, and jockey Victor Espinoza has dialed all the correct numbers in six straight wins. From a betting standpoint you can buy a souvenir ticket and have it framed if he was to win the triple crown. However, true handicappers won't be looking for a souvenir but for a scalp. The morning line on Commanding Curve is 15/1, another Rodney Dangerfield dismissal by the line maker at Belmont Park.
Wicked Strong was made the second choice at 6/1 because it's his home track, and Tonalist who is the new Casanova in town is the third choice at 8/1 after his lovely win in the Peter Pan. Wicked Strong had a troubled story line in the derby, but I wasn't a huge fan going into the race. Although I rooted for Social Inclusion in the Wood Memorial, I didn't care for the other horses. Social Inclusion showed he needed more seasoning, and Wicked Strong closed to win the race. I threw out those horses in the derby when I was making my selection. Tonalist was impressive in the Peter Pan demolishing Commissioner who was unable to beat Chitu and Midnight Hawk at Sunland. Irish You Well ran third in the Peter Pan. He would be 20/1 or higher in the Belmont Stakes. Tonalist is a nice looking son of Tapit, but I am staying away.
The other entries in the Belmont are good horses that will find the winner's circle in other races. I loved Ride On Curlin going into the Preakness and he was validated with a very good run. I don't like him however at a mile and half on Saturday. Samratt who is trained by one of my favorites, Rick Violette, will he heard from in the future but not on Saturday. Medal Count will be a player this summer but not on Saturday. The other horses are window dressing hoping to get stake place in an American Classic.
Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner. The drought has been too long, but will California Chrome be the one to end that long history? My heart knows it would be a lovely script to enjoy someday, but my voucher will have a curve to this story.
The command will be to wait until next year for the first triple crown winner since Affirmed.
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